Followup on Johnny Jungle’s Big East Preview

As previously mentioned (with my thought process here), the In and Out: Big East Summer Conference Preview is on Johnny Jungle. All 4 parts have been posted, so check it out in reverse alphabetical order -

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4

Other late summer looks at the Big East in the next basketball season are out there:

• Villanova By The Numbers‘ look at Returning Minutes

• Part I and Part II of Cracked Sidewalks‘ Big East Preview based on KenPom statistics (their methodology here)

• ESPN’s Big East Shootaround

• and Kevin McNamara’s look at the Big East (below the A-10 section) on the Providence Journal.

after the jump, check out some additional notes on my Johnny Jungle preview.

A Guide to Cancun for the Red Storm and Other Basketballers

(Top photo from Dputty on Flickr, second from Jaguar404 on Flickr)

This year, the St. John’s men’s basketball team is taking advantage of the NCAA rule that allows a team to take one out-of-season foreign tour every four years. This tour comes with 10 additional practice days, and coaches love additional practice days. And the perk of getting to travel, for the players, is definitely worth it. Even if they don’t get totally obliterated like Mikey and Chuckwagon in the side photo (not their real names, I don’t know those dudes).

Three teams played in Cancun in 2007 in August and September - John Pelphrey’s Arkansas Razorbacks, Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears, and Jeff Lebo’s Auburn Tigers. Let’s look at what was written about their trips to get a better sense of why a college ball team takes time out to travel to Mexico for a couple of basketball games:

HOW IT WORKS

From Baylor’s official site, on their trip last summer:

“Our basketball team is very excited to get a head start on the season,” head coach Scott Drew said.

“This will be a great opportunity to gel and a great learning experience for our team to visit a foreign country and have a chance to see some of the world.”

Per NCAA rules, schools can take one foreign tour every four years and are allowed 10 additional practice days. Baylor will begin practice Monday; because the trip begins after the start of classes the entire roster is eligible to travel.

If they could, coaches would practice year-round. Ten practices at the beginning of the year really are a boon to both the team and the coach; those first few games won’t be spent drilling in the defensive and offensive wrinkles that coach is trying to impart. And for the Red Storm, it will be important to get the team to mesh. The player mix will be different without:

- Eugene Lawrence to take the last-second shots and run the offense at his pace. He tended to be slow and deliberate, bleeding the shot clock, and he kept the less-quick guards in front of him. Boothe will be similar, but is quicker and was not a good shooter last year;

- and Larry Wright’s outside shooting. His role will likely go to Paris Horne (who has a different game and is a different kind of finisher) and Quincy Roberts, who is a freshman.

The benefits, the competition, and the “sightseeing” after the jump.

Notes + Methodology on Big East Summer Conference Preview

Preseason predictions are a funny thing, for sure. The coaches can hardly predict what they’re team will do and how they will respond to adversity, and every coach, deep down, has to think he or she has a real winner on their hands. Then again, I am sure some coaches know when they just don’t have the horses to run in their league.

But predictions (along with pictures of young curvy women, arrests, and gossip) keep the readers going in the languid heat of summer, so I was happy to contribute the Big East Summer Conference preview to Johnny Jungle. The preview covers men’s basketball squads in the ultra-competitive league. Parts one, two, and three of 4 are currently up, going in reverse alphabetical order and listing the players who have come and the players who have gone from each team, and how I think that will affect the basketball squad.

I think a reader or three of this site might have some ideas/ input into how to analyze men’s college basketball players. I’ve had some email conversations with some people who have noticed a post or whose posts I have noticed, and it’s good to look at what other people are thinking when they try to predict what their team might do with a clear head.

So for the purposes of full disclosure, In analyzing how teams might change because of their recruiting classes, I thought along these lines (read after the jump):

Big East Conference 2008-09 Summer Basketball Preview

In the pure interest of self-promotion, I have the first installment of an article called “In and Out: Big East Conference 2008-09 Summer Preview” up at Johnny Jungle. The article is a look at each Big East basketball team and how their recruiting classes will help them in the coming year. I’ll be posting links as they go up on the Jungle; there will be 4 teams covered every other day.

The first 4 teams covered: West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse, and South Florida. A summary: West Virginia’s recruiting class will definitely affect their year, Villanova’s will not, and their players need to improve, Syracuse really could surprise folks, and South Florida is coming closer to having a roster full of Big East talent.

Again: check it out.

Comments? Suggestions? Beefs? Comment and let me know what you think.

College Hoops Net Preview of St. John’s

College Hoops Net has started their previews of the top 144 basketball teams (in their prediction)… and the second major conference team after Colorado is St. John’s, at 142. Ouch. Even last year, the Red Storm were 131 with a class of all freshmen coming in. Those freshman are sophomores. Without factoring in the advances of other teams, and fully acknowledging that the Johnnies will not be a top Big East squad on the hardwood next year, let’s follow and speak on the rationale of how a team with 9 returnees, most of whom started last year, gets a bottom-of-barrell scrape:

- The team is still young, though the freshmen did play a lot and Mason can be a game changer when healthy: agreed. And his health has been enough of an issue that it is a question mark.

- Replacing Eugene Lawrence at point guard is a concern, despite his inconsistencies; he was a good leader: agreed that the point guard spot will be a concern; Geno did some things well on defense, though he couldn’t hang with the quicker players in the league. His scoring was inconsistent, but he will be replaced by an even worse scorer in Boothe, unless Boothe improves. I don’t want to rip on the departed players, but Geno’s leadership seemed to include not passing to some guys in the post, and sometimes taking a bad shot instead of looking for another player to pass to. Boothe should speed the tempo, and “lead,” but he may be similarly inconsistent. Another question mark; he needs to improve.

- Larry Wright was the most consistent shooter but will not be with the team: It’s true, he was the most consistent shooter. He developed a runner between freshman and sophomore years (or maybe he just used it more), and one hopes that Paris Horne can add the same to his game. Question mark.

- The backcourt gets depth with Quincy Roberts and TyShwan “Stop Spelling My Name Wrong” Edmondson. Phil Wait is an intriguing prospect: here’s where this preview gets wonky to me. The team certainly hopes Roberts is a shooter. But Edmondson’s scoring prowess is unproven (why was no one on this guy? Makes an outside observer suspect of his talent, and I hope to be proven wrong), and he is much more needed to play point guard, because Boothe can’t play 40 minutes every game. Wait is 7 feet tall, and I hope that at 21 and with years of practice, he can play a few minutes and divert some shots. But he is a project for the time being. Less of a question mark here, because the fortunes of the team roll with the returning players.

- Are Boothe/ Kennedy/ Horne ready to take over a majority of minutes: Note that Boothe had a better assist to turnover ratio only in-conference, not overall. Boothe is certainly in the flow of things, having played a lot of pg last year. Horne has to show something in the halfcourt sets, like the ability to get his shot off. And he has to become the defender Coach Roberts thinks he is. Less of a question mark; they all played a significant amount, even if they weren’t world beaters.

- Kennedy proved to be a capable scorer going to the basket: Kennedy was a capable scorer when he chose to go to the basket, but disappeared in some games. I like him to be more consistent this year, but he has to learn to take more shots with Mason on the floor. Kennedy played a good number of minutes; he needs to bring a little more to the table - lockdown defense, steals, passing, and some aggressive drives. And a capable standstill outside shot when he’s left alone on the wing. Big question mark here. Kennedy was a double double threat in the beginning of the year and disappeared midseason. I think his numbers showed signs of fatigue, but I’m not his doctor.

- The frontcourt is full of talented youngsters who need to turn talent into production: very true. Question mark.

- Dele Coker was starting to look more comfortable around the basket at the end of the year: I must have missed those games. I thought he looked a little lost, but also didn’t get a lot of minutes. He’s a question mark, for sure.

- Add Rob Thomas… and the frontcourt might be looking good: agreed. Question mark, because it involves a return to health.

- …experienced senior Tomas Jasiulionis: we’ll just forget about that part. Unless Tomas comes back with some long-hidden game - and I firmly believe players improve between their first and second years, mostly - TJ needs to wave that towel from the bench and give some minutes when the Big East’s big men are mauling Coker, Evans, and Wait.

It’s all the “ifs” and the lack of sure things that make projecting this team positively to be difficult. There is some talent, but no faith that the staff can develop said talent. A lot of question marks, all around, and no answers.

St John’s 07-08 Year In Review Part O-Prequel

This year, the dwindling numbers of people who watched St. John’s games were:

- long time die hards
- recruits looking at the former Redmen
- players’ relatives
- watching the other team look incredible in winning.

It wasn’t a particularly pretty year from the jump, but the 7 man freshman class (and redshirt freshman Rob Thomas) was expected to give some hope for the future. They were athletic! They were local! They were the hard work of recruiting and recruiting the right way come home to roost!

They spent much of the year getting their heads handed to them in demoralizing losses. Coach Roberts was on the hot seat coming into the season, but the administration saw something they liked, and as of this writing plans to give the coach an extension so he can see his rebuilding project through. Broken or not, it remains to be seen if Coach Roberts can shore up the team’s deficiencies enough to put up the kind of record that will keep him employed at St. John’s. And it remains to be seen whether his upcoming extension comes with the stipulation that he hire an x and o coach, especially offensively.

There were injuries, and freshmen to work in, true. But other teams have worked in frosh and avoided having 10 10-point or more blowouts. With two of those being 20 point blowouts. With 5 games where the team couldn’t crack 50 points.

U Conn also worked in 6 or so frosh. But they had sophomores like Jeff Adrien and AJ Price to lead the way; they were more talented and taller; and by Ken Pomeroy’s stats, were both unlucky to the tune of about 3.6 wins and were an elite defensive team. They were horrific shooters, and have passed on the being decent scorers.

These are not things the Johnnie freshmen can hang their hat on. St. John’s offense was, charitably, putrid. The defense was less than it was in previous years, and I will point that out quickly in the next post.

This is the first in a series of posts about the 2007-08 St. John’s Red Storm men’s basketball squad. I’ll go through each player’s overall and conference stats and talk about some things they need to improve. I am sure the staff and better basketball minds can think of other steps they can take to improve this team to watchability. There won’t be any straight projections, but there will be conjecture.

Have issues or comments? Drop them in the comment section, I’d love to hear them.

Big East Teams’ NCAA Matchups

From the NBE Basketball blog.

The first round matchups for Big East teams playing on Thursday - Pittsburgh, Marquette, West Virginia, and Marquette.

The first round matchups for Big East teams playing on Friday - Georgetown, Villanova, Connecticut, and Louisville.

Game #30: St. John’s vs West Virginia

The season ends tomorrow at the Garden as West Virginia brings their show into town. I wonder if they will go home or just take a few more days and hang out in the City? I mean, hell, 2-3 days of up north fun, the good clubs, and all that? Maybe they can use St. John’s basketball practice facility, because Lord knows the Red Storm won’t need it.

West Virginia has the look and feel of a dangerous 7-8 seed, and I’ll be excited to see when they’re in the tournament, especially against a Pac-10 team. There isn’t much of a need to scout; this is kind of like a late September/ early October baseball game, where the other team is playing out the string. Hopefully St. John’s will let the walk-ons play one time in the garden– let Biesty get his shot off, let Obit do… what does Otaja Abit do? I don’t know. Let’s see it.

The last game was somewhat close, and I bet the young Storm feels that they could pull one out while the Mountaineers are sleeping on ‘em. It would be nice to see improvements from Burrell defending Joe Alexander, and nice to see more offense out of him also.

It’s Eugene Lawrence’s final game in the red and white, and it’s been a roller coaster ride. He came to play on the big stage, and that’s been his goal; the man transferred to Lincoln from Canarsie to play with the big boys and get attention, and he chose St. john’s rather than UNC-Charlotte for the same reason. And he’s been a tough, crafty SOB at the point. His turnovers were a drawback, but he could really get to the free throw line. He might play in some low-level Euro leagues (kid, go to Argentina, the women there are like whoa. Wait, you have a child, and a baby momma? I take that back). Or he might go to Iceland like the disgraced Grady Reynolds.

Been a good ride. Well, not a good ride, but a ride, nonetheless. I hope Lawrence gets into announcing or coaching or something. i think he doesn’t have the physical skill to be a high level player, but he has a lot of good ideas (that his body couldn’t cash in on).

No Then and Now feature, it’s late in the work day and I need to go home.

Mentions of this sleeper game in the blogosphere:

WV Mountaintop Game Summary of the Backyard Brawl
Little Johnny Went to the Garden

Game #29: St. John’s at Notre Dame

The St. John’s Red Storm (11-17, 5-11 Big East) travels to South Bend, IN, to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (22-6, 12-4 Big East), who have a very long home win streak.

If I was in town, I would do what Notre Dame fans do every weekend from Chicago and go to the land of the Golden Dome. But then, I’d just be torturing myself… because this has blowout potential.

Notre Dame vs St. John’s, a Comparison of Catholic Basketball.

ND: Awesome offensive team, featuring possible Big East player of the year Luke Harangody, more inside presence in Kurz, Hillesland, and even Luke Zeller, and outside shooting in McAlarney and Tory Jackson on a good day. Good offensive flow, the ball goes through their best player on most possessions.

StJ: Terrible offensive team, featuring scorers who don’t get off the bench, and multiple players on the floor at any time who couldn’t consistently get the ball in the hoop against an intramural team (see: point guard Malik Boothe to the right, who is developing his jump shot). Have trouble getting ball to the prized freshman.

ND: 34 Game home winning streak.

StJ: 6 road wins in the past 4 years.

ND: A mediocre basketball history punctuated by a decent ten years.

StJ: An good basketball history, with a lot of wins, highs, and NIT Championships, punctuated by a mostly mediocre last 15 years.

ND: Has first round bye in conference tournament.

StJ: Longshot to make conference tournament.

The one (negative) thing I can say about Notre Dame is that their defense isn’t particularly good, visually. There are gaps that good players can get through. The guards don’t force turnovers, though opposing teams shoot a low effective field goal percentage. These gaps are why the Fighting Irish won’t get far in the NCAA Tournament, and why they’ve been unable to knock off the top teams.

If St. John’s could get to the line, not turn the ball over (i.e., no stupid passes AND only get the ball to Burrell where he can do something with it, and get open for a kickout pass if he’s double teamed), and actually get a hat on Harangody and Kurz on both ends (Harangody, in particular, is a phenomenal rebounder), the Johnnies might have a chance.

But really? This is just more practice for next year. Anthony Mason Jr. should have a good game, and if this team fights like they did in recent blowouts, they’ll only lose by 10-15, instead of 20.

Game #28: Seton Hall at St. John’s

Or, “is this season over yet?”

Analysis to come in between doing stuff for the people who pay me. But I wanted to post two things on the upcoming game:

- From the Storming the Floor Blog:

SATURDAY - Seton Hall vs. St. John’s. “Hey Norm, don’t you wish NYC had more talent to choose from? It totally screws us.” “Yep, Bobby, you’re soooo right.”

Seton Hall fans need to take a moment and see where all of that Bobby Gonzalez bluster is getting them. He talks a big game, he woofs about how he’s just hungry enough to steal a recruit from the big boys, how he’s a competitive SOB, how Pitino hates him…

But where are those recruits? He’s got Jeremy Hazell, and he had Michael Glover until he was ruled ineligible (aka the Derwin Kitchen special), Eugene “Nunu” Harvey, and a bunch of mediocre guys. Gonzalez says Seton Hall will compete for the top guys, but… we’ll believe it when we see it.

But two years into his tenure at the Hall, the Pirates have 17 wins and the team’s fighting for a win at St. John’s so he can get into the Big East tourney - the win clinches their berth. It’s early yet; and as long as he doesn’t grope up on Erin Andrews…

Though fistfighting with one’s assistants might be a little too bats**t crazy even for Bobby Gonzalez. Coaching on the edge, right there.