Rating Coaches

Fox Sports columnist Jeff Goodman recently posted his list of top college basketball assistants, polling head coaches, assistants, and those close to assistants. His names are broken into BCS conferences and mid-major conferences (would Xavier and Gonzaga have landed in the mid-major area? We don’t know, none of their assistant coaches were on the list). There are a few former head coaches (Larry Shyatt (Florida), Joe Dooley (Kansas), Donnie Daniels (UCLA)), some up and comers, some people with pedigree/ former player resumes (but no major ex-pros), and some guys who started out on the high school level.

This list, however, focuses on recruiting achievements. For an assistant coach, that is a somewhat quantifiable metric - how well a coach can lock down a recruit who is interested in their school. That focus, of course, doesn’t necessarily tell us how that coach is on a comparative level - in a good situation with a good product (some combination of a competitive team, tv exposure, playing time, an attractive campus, big booty hoes, a well-regarded head coach), many people can recruit the names we come to know in college ball. When he was hired, St. John’s coach Norm Roberts was advertised as the man who brought Russell Robinson to Kansas and got a verbal from Charlie Villanueva.*

Being associated with great college basketball names will get an assistant coach a job. But should it? Those recruiting achievements are not the coach’s alone; they belong to the head coach, to the quality and style of play, and perhaps to the institution. Believing that these recruiting wins are the coach’s alone is questionable; and the game isn’t won on the number of 4 and 5 star Rivals or Scout.com recruits a coach gets. It certainly helps, but that’s not the end-all.

Answering some of this is Yet Another Basketball Blog’s Coach Ratings by Dan Hanner. Admittedly, I don’t know all of ratings’ methodology. For example, the recruiting ratings might be from the aforementioned basketball player rating sites or some other source. And does this model account for players who have transferred (probably not, since he does not penalize for players going pro early)? How does one measure expected wins? What if talent is overrated? Otherwise, this is a sharp look at what ingredients constitute what we think of as a good coach. The ratings for recruiting and coaching come from regression analysis of the impact on talent on wins. The main point is that the numbers give a comparative look at a coach’s recruiting and regular season performance at each school.

Some light numbers, and of course chatter about St. John’s, after the jump.

Sports Links 05.12.08

And a wholly unnecessary Emanuelle Chriqui photo.

+ Lenny Dykstra’s high end mag for pro athletes is stuck in legal/ monetary disputes, as former Ram defensive back Ryan McNeil’s is. That “Nails never fails” article in the New Yorker is getting old already. Move it to the “fiction” section, people.

+ More of a peek into the private life of Marvin Harrison after the shooting near a bar that he owns.

+ Mike D’Antoni is the Knicks coach! Holy Crapcakes!

The beauty of NYC is such that the first article I read is “Bringing in Mike D’Antoni wrong move for the Knicks“. And it may be true, if only for the dead wood on the roster that needs to be dumped. This article is a little wrong though; the roster is missing a credible point guard, for certain, but the idea that the Suns put up good shots all the time because of their IQ is questionable. Their speed and spacing allowed them to get good looks early in the offense, and unlike other basketball coaches, D’Antoni has no problem with early shots. Jamal Crawford loves to take jumpers with 20 seconds left on the shot clock! He’ll be a freaking natural! (I’m not joking. I actually think that Nate Robinson and Crawford might be good in this system. Starbury, however, needs to be bought out.)

Though D’Antoni would have KILLED with the Bulls’ roster, no doubt. But they would never play defense, and GM Paxson wanted assurances that there would be defense played at the United Center.

+ Yesterday I glanced at the score of the Mets game and.. what the hot hell? It’s Oliver Perez’ good day! Which ended with a bad hiccup. From the Journal News:

The unsolved mystery that is Oliver Perez was back on display yesterday at Shea Stadium. There he was, sweeping breaking balls past the lefty bats of Adam Dunn and Joey Votto. There he was firing five innings of one-hit ball. Yet there he was giving up three runs in the sixth.

Suddenly, it was a Day at the Improv. He dropped his arm lower, trying to change speeds because he was tiring. It turned out to be a wild pitch, skipping past Brian Schneider to allow one of the runs to score. Perez also surprised the Reds with a bunt single. Before that, he walked and stole second.

“How crazy are you, Ollie?” manager Willie Randolph playfully asked, turning toward the 26-year-old lefty entering the interview room. “Do you have a full deck? They want to know. Inquiring minds want to know. I’ll take you anyway. I’ll tell you what, you can play on my team any day.”

Perez is good. Perez is bad. Sometimes in the same game. Good luck predicting the unpredictable. But after throwing three straight losing duds, the Mets will take the three-run, three-hit, eight-strikeout, four-walk, one-hit-batter work he gave them over six innings in beating Cincinnati 8-3 in the rubber game of the series.

+ Meanwhile, like me, Mets’ minor leaguer Fernando Martinez is allergic to lobster.

+ Uni Watch has lots of the Mother’s Day pink paraphernalia that MLB players and umps rocked.

+ Cablevision is buying Newsday? Isn’t there a limit to local media synergies? I guess not.

Will Long Island become one giant Cablevision bubble, where Jim Dolan is a cuddly teddy bear and the Knicks are everyone’s favorite? If I want to reach Long Island… will I have to go through Dolan? Will he manage Long Island’s media future?

+ The Devil Rays are winning baseball games? What is this world coming to?

+ Florida State player plans to play all 9 positions in today’s game. If the game goes extra innings, he should offer to umpire the game, just to add another layer of gimmick.

+ The 4 armed robbers accused of killing safety Sean Taylor will not face the death penalty.

+ One Droo Hill makes edits to the United Countries of Baseball region map, which was perhaps influenced by this unscientific but interesting attempt from 2007. The map does not reflect certain sports teams that roll deep in every city they go to like the Yank-These and Mets.

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Willie Randolph In Trouble?

The team is 71-71 since last June 1st and the management plans to sit down and evaluate Randolph’s performance at the end of the month. I am sure other teams do that, but ownership might just have a quibble. From Dan Graziano’s article at the Star-Ledger:

Where Randolph comes up short is in his failure to recognize what kind of team he has and manage accordingly. Randolph is a decent man who cares deeply about his team and his job and believes strongly in himself. But he’s also stubborn, and that’s what has him in trouble.

Randolph came from the Yankees, where the championship teams of the late ’70s and the late ’90s were packed with hard-nosed winners. He believes he shouldn’t need to motivate or fire up big-league players, because his teams never needed that.

In principle, he’s right. He shouldn’t need to remind major-league players that it’s important to raise their games in big spots, or not to take games or at-bats off.

But unfortunately for Randolph, his players are soft. His players are the types who don’t raise their games in big spots, who do take at-bats off. His players coast through long stretches of the season, assuming their talent will carry them through without any extra effort or emotion on their part. His players are not self-motivators, and they are a group that might respond well to being scared every now and then.

That’s not to say they need a Larry Bowa/Lou Piniella type of screamer. “Scaring” players like this would be as simple as letting them know their playing time isn’t guaranteed — that a long, languid slump by the $17 million-a-year center fielder isn’t going to be tolerated when there’s a hungry, energetic Angel Pagan around to man the position while Carlos Beltran gets his head together on the bench.

Randolph doesn’t do that. He does what Joe Torre used to do when his veteran players slumped. He tells them he believes in them and will stick by them until they come out of it.

But in the case of these particular Mets, it doesn’t work. These Mets get too comfortable. They can keep mailing it in at no threat to themselves or their lifestyle. You went 0-for-5 again, Carlos? No problem. You’ll be back in there tomorrow, have no fear. We’ll never embarrass you.

By now — after the playoff flop of 2006, the historic meltdown of ‘07 and the sleepy start to ‘08 — Randolph should understand this, and he should be doing something about it. He is not.

But does scaring players with the threat of losing playing time work? Or does it alienate the player? I hate watching Carlos Beltran’s at bats as much as anyone, but playing time is a blunt instrument to effect change. I think Beltran might be served by taking fewer stinking pitches, myself. How does one build the desire to get pissed off at each failed at bat like Paul O’Neill? And do the Mets want players that tightly wound?

Don’t get me wrong, I think Willie needs to do something more than sitting back in the cut. or the dugout, as it were.

This weekend: The Cincinnati Reds. Analysis here from Amazin’ Avenue.

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St. John’s Agrees to Renew Rollover Contract with Coach Roberts

Coach Roberts has his contract renewal. What took so long? Who knows…

May 9, 2008

QUEENS, N.Y. - St. John’s University Director of Athletics Chris Monasch announced on Friday that head coach Norm Roberts has agreed to a renewal of his five-year rollover contract, and will continue to lead the rebuilding of the University’s basketball program.

“As stated in February, Coach Roberts has established the foundation for a successful program — integrity, hard work and discipline. Our student-athletes are performing well in the classroom and are getting better on the court,” stated Monasch. “We are pleased with what Norm and his staff have accomplished over the past four years, and believe the progress in many key areas is consistent with the expectations expressed by the University, our supporters and Coach Roberts when he was hired in 2004.”

“Coach Roberts and St. John’s are committed to extending that success onto the basketball court,” Monasch continued. “The primary focus of this contact [sic] renewal emphasizes the importance of being successful on the court. We are confident that at this point, we have a young, talented nucleus that will return our program to its winning tradition in the very near future.”

“This agreement shows the commitment that St. John’s is making to me and my staff, to continue to build our program and make it as strong as it possibly can be, not just for now but for the long term,” said Roberts. “We believe that we are building a solid foundation with our young players. They are working hard every single day to improve individually and as a team. We are increasing our talent level all the time, and we know as a program we are getting better every day.”

The 2008-09 schedule for the Red Storm provides a formidable test for a team led by two returning seniors and seven sophomores. In addition to the arduous BIG EAST conference slate, which will include games against Louisville, Georgetown and Syracuse, St. John’s will participate in the Preseason NIT and play host to Duke and Miami as part of its non-conference schedule.

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Is Richard Jefferson Gonna Have to Choke a Bitch?

Apparently not. The New Jersey Nets star disputes the account of the man who accuses Jefferson of assault at a Minnesota nightclub:

Speaking on Sirius satellite radio late Wednesday, Jefferson said he was attending a birthday party for teammate Vince Carter when he was approached in the hotel bar by an individual he described as “very rude and very disrespectful.”

Jefferson said “an altercation broke out” but no punches were thrown.

“They were saying there was choking. It was more of a getting your space,” he said. “This individual doesn’t have a scratch on him. There was no mark. There was no blood. There was no anything.”…

The documents say Jefferson entered the area and got angry when he was asked to leave. He is accused of grabbing the victim, shoving him to a bench and choking him with both hands.

“You know, it is unfortunate,” Jefferson said. “I’ve never been involved in an incident in my life. I don’t even think I’ve ever been thrown out of a basketball game. But some drunk individual wants to come up and, you know, then, of course, when they start telling their side of the story we’re the big bad athletes that think they can get away with everything and then they’re some innocent individual that has never made a mistake in their life.”

Your Atlantic Yards Update

Less ambitious than previous designs, and missing that Green Roof and public space so lovingly touted in the initial brochures (pdf), Bruce Ratner’s Atlantic Yards development seems to be hitting some… snags, like every other large scale development in the sputtering economy.

…concerted efforts [to stop Bruce Ratner's Atlantic Yards development] proved largely unsuccessful, key components of the development are now on hold — not because of public outrage, but rather due to increasing construction costs, a slowing economy sliding toward recession and a tightening credit market.

To different degrees, the very same economic challenges facing Atlantic Yards confront real estate projects both big and small throughout the five boroughs.

As the economy turns toward recession, developers, community groups and city officials alike are questioning whether these projects will go through at all — or at least in the way many had previously imagined.

While much of Atlantic Yards project is sliding to the back burner, the $950 million arena is moving forward and slated for completion in 2010 for one main reason: The financing for it is already in place. Unlike the private financing needed for the commercial and residential buildings, Forest City Ratner already has secured $670 million in tax-free bonds to cover the costs of the arena’s construction beyond the $200 million in subsidies already in place ($100 million from both the Empire State Development Corporation and the city).

Additionally, unlike the commercial tower centerpiece known as Miss Brooklyn, the stadium already has its anchor tenant lined up (the Nets) and Barclays has ponied up a reported $400 million specifically for the stadium’s naming rights.

Miss Brooklyn has been redone and renamed “B1″; it now looks like lego blocks, all twisted:

Furthermore, investors are generally wary of mixed-use projects as the Atlantic Yards was designed to be - arena, high and middle-income (”affordable”) housing, and commercial space. Sole use properties are easier to get loan funding for; the easy money, fast-development days are over.

Where are the tenants for these buildings going to come from? The athletic part of the equation is easier to figure out; the funding is pretty much in place. But is the stadium a viable project for the developer without the money-making residential and commercial space? Let alone new Governor David Patterson’s opposition stance on eminent domain when he was a state senator.

For his part, Bruce Ratner will not speak of how the project might be scaled down. Instead, in this editorial in last week’s Daily News, he chooses to speak of difficulties and obstacles:

In recent weeks, some have rushed to write the obituary of Atlantic Yards, the multi-billion dollar, 22-acre development my company is building near downtown Brooklyn.

But rumors of Atlantic Yards’ demise, stirred by opponents, have been greatly exaggerated. The project is moving forward in its entirety, and in the coming years it will bring jobs, housing and an improved quality of life to Brooklyn.

…the delays have pushed us into a time when the economy has slowed, and both financing and tenant commitments are more challenging to obtain. But contrary to rumors, large deals are still getting done, and in the past year alone we have closed on the two largest construction financings in our company’s history, totaling over $1.3 billion. Atlantic Yards will be no different.

The stakes are high. As other major developments around the city face challenges, Atlantic Yards has become even more important to our economy than when we first announced it. That’s why we have tried so hard to work through each obstacle we’ve confronted. If more unforeseen hurdles appear, we will tackle them with the same resolve. Working with our public sector partners, I am confident we will continue to overcome all obstacles to complete this project.

So, what’s next?

Our first goal is to break ground on the Barclays Center later this year. Shortly after that, we will break ground on the first residential building, which includes a significant amount of affordable housing.

An aside on rhetoric: I like how he uses “rumors… stirred by opponents.” You’re either with us, or with the economic terrorists (who live in Brooklyn and have issues with the project).

As for the project; breaking ground doesn’t mean “finished” by 2010? The infrastructure - covering the existing train yards - hasn’t even been done yet! Opponents call his time estimates “not credible.” And let’s talk about the costs of the Barclays Center:

…the estimated cost of their proposed new building — the Barclays Center in Brooklyn — has soared to $950 million, or more than twice the price of any pro basketball or hockey arena ever built in the United States.

And where in the world would they find much of the money to build that arena?

Europe, it turns out.

Nets Chief Executive Officer Brett Yormark has just returned from London and Turin, Italy, where he has begun attempts to entice foreign companies into becoming major contributing sponsors for the new Brooklyn arena.

Yormark already stunned the sports business world last year, when he persuaded British-based Barclays Bank to pay an unprecedented $20 million annually for naming rights to the Nets’ planned new home. That’s four times the amount that Prudential is paying for naming rights at the $380 million home of the Devils hockey team in Newark.

Renowned architect Frank Gehry — who is designing the Barclays Center — is revered in Europe, Yormark said. Gehry’s creations include the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, Spain, and the “Dancing House” in Prague, the Czech Republic.

“We’ve never pitched this as an arena — we’ve pitched it as a landmark,” Yormark said.

That sounds like some wishin’ and hopin’ to me. What would entice foreign sponsors to invest? Because the dollar is weak? The “landmark” building? Outside of Barclay, where will their names be seen and spoken? As far as landmarks go, they are nice to have - and if there is an arena, it would be interesting to have an architecturally interesting one - but that landmark isn’t going to pay anyone’s bills, is it?

And in fact, the Nets might move a little closer to their Meadowlands home…

Nets are currently losing an estimated $40 million a year playing in the Meadowlands, and are stuck there at least another two seasons before a Brooklyn arena could be ready. And they’re facing an increasingly tougher financial road there as well, despite heavy public subsidies. As George Zoffinger, former head of Jersey’s sports authority, told the Star-Ledger: “When you start to spend north of $500 million for an arena, you can’t generate the cash flow necessary to generate a decent return on the investment. If the number is $900 million, it’s absolutely, positively not viable from an economic standpoint.”

The NJ Sports and Exposition Authority might waive the penalty in the Nets’ contract that previously did not allow them to move within the Garden State. But a NY arena might bring in more fans (more central location than Newark’s Prudential Center, where the Nets would move if they stayed in Jersey), and more importantly, might attract more investors and luxury box purchases by simply being in NY and close to the financial district.

By the way, about that architect Frank Gehry… the incoming head of the Port Authority has some misgivings about sticking with him.

Chris Ward, due to take over the Port Authority this month, suggests to us that he thinks Bruce Ratner should consider recruiting architects other than Frank Gehry for the Atlantic Yards. “Flatbush and Atlantic is a totally underused area and a major transportation hub, and I hope we don’t lock ourselves into a design that does not allow other architecture or public space,” says Ward. That design is entirely Gehry’s; even after Ratner admitted his multi-tower vision might not attract financing, public officials have kept the architect front and center…. this warning should hearten the project’s opponents: Ward will have a lot of influence over state spending if the developer needs a cash influx.

I highly doubt that this scale of project will come in under budget. And the aspects of the plan that are not being talked about - dealing with traffic and congestions, water provision and electric load issues, will probably be costly as well… and those will come out of the state’s pocket in one way or another; Forest City Ratner is already asking for more subsidies.

AY Renderings from the New York Daily News

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Transfer Update: Georgetown

With Vernon Macklin transferring to Florida (I can’t believe he’s leaving because of competition with Greg Monroe, as some seem to intimate), and Jeremiah Rivers also transferring, Georgetown is beginning to look like a young team. From the Hoya:

With the graduation of four seniors, the Hoyas are left with just four players who played significant minutes last season — junior guard Jessie Sapp, sophomore forward DaJuan Summers and freshmen guards Austin Freeman and Chris Wright….

Rivers scored a career-high nine points in a December game against Fairfield, and he added four rebounds and five assists. He dished out a career-high seven assists in the first round of the NCAA tournament his freshman year against Belmont.

In addition to the four returning regulars, Georgetown will bring in four highly-touted recruits. Three big men, highlighted by 6-foot-10 Greg Monroe, will be joined by 6-foot-2 guard Jason Clark, who rivals.com lists as the 12th best shooting guard in his class.

And the Washington Post:

Rivers is the fifth player to leave Georgetown since October 2006. All five players — Josh Thornton, Marc Egerson, Tay Spann, Macklin and Rivers — were part of Thompson’s first two recruiting classes at Georgetown. Only Sapp and Summers remain with the team.

I can’t come up with a reason why the men’s college basketball scene has been so volatile in the past few years; I don’t remember this many transfers in the 90’s, and coaches still got fired, players still were dissatisfied with their playing time.

Does the volatility have anything to do with the one and done players in school? Guys like Greg Monroe - and yes, he’d be a little less of a straight-to-NBA lock as Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo would have been - will demand playing time from the coaches because of their talent. And future one (or two) years-and-done players will see where they will get the best exposure/ playing time mix for scouts to project them to the next level.

That doesn’t at all speak to the transfers among the middle and lower level schools; are there problems with athletes staying eligible? Are they committing to schools to early? Or are the players acting like amateur free agents, looking for better or more secure places to maximize their ballin’ years?

Whatever it is, there seems to be something going on.

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Mets 11, Dodgers In Hiding

The Mets are out in LA taking out some frustrations on Brad Penny, Joe Torre and their mediocre record. David Wright is the only regular who hasn’t crossed the plate, including starting pitcher John Maine, who knocked in 2 runs and is working on a 1 2 hitter in the 5th.

Recruiting Update: Bobby Maze to Tennessee

Bobby Maze is off the board. He never made his visit to St. John’s anyway:

“Stevie Wonder could see this is where I needed to be,’’ said Maze, who transferred from Oklahoma to Hutchinson (Kan.) Community College last year. “They’ve called me `The Solution’ here, so you do the equation: what better place could I be?’’

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Your Team Needs Zach Feinstein

I think Washington University’s Zachary Feinstein should be a late second round pick. Prediction: he will dominate in China before returning as a defensive specialist and some team’s resident 5′8″ engineer. Teams out there - you want his rights. Kudos to you, man, for continuing to put my alma mater, the WU, on the map.

But Zach, you should show them your athleticism. Dunk more. And why weren’t you on the D-III national championship squad this year?

(photo from http://www.draftfeinstein.com/)

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