Finding the Price Point for Televised Sporting Events

Growing up, it was hard to see teams other than the “big boys” in college football; especially in the New York City area, before Connecticut went to the D-I aka FBS level, and while Rutgers was just poor.  I didn’t know anyone who stopped everything for Saturday football; the teams that came on – even close ones like Penn State – had no relation to my life. I never knew of the need to see one’s football team, the wearing of college football colors, the sense of regional pride that the southern and plains and midwestern teams engendered.

One of those teams – specifically, Nebraska football – is the reason I got in to college football. In college, I lived in a 6 person suite, with a room right next to the common area, where we had a small TV.  My suitemate from Omaha was a huge Huskers fan.  Huge.  I would be working (or drinking) late into the night on Fridays. He used to wake me up on Saturday, about 11.20 AM yelling about some Nebraska foible… while they were up 14 on, say, Troy State. That made me cranky as hell, so I brushed up on my football so I could insult the Cornhuskers, especially when they played Mizzou… or some team that might actually beat them in the 90’s.

The fervor was not restricted to Nebraska, of course. And the proliferation of cable/ satellite options, channels, and regional programming means that more people can feed their need for information. There is obviously a demand to not only see one’s teams, but the get the “inside scoop,” the “candid” and “unfiltered” information – to get close to one’s team.  The best way of doing this is either to find a news outlet with a huge budget to cover the team, or to localize the news.

Those Nebraska fans, would travel from far and wide to see their team live – putting money into ticket sales, gasoline, tailgating food; there is a cost that they are willing to pay to experience Nebraska football. Now, the school will test the price tag of that dedication by showing their first three non-conference games in pay-per-view format. The linked article touches on the revenue concept for many bigger-time teams, schools, and conferences looking for ways to control their revenue streams and differentiate viewers, separating the casuals from the die-hards, who will pay much more per view than you and I might through our cable or satellite package.  And that money goes to the school and their content distributor.

I suppose that this is problematic, as we expect to get our sports television for a small fee; but there are fans who pay good money to get the aforementioned “insider” information on recruiting sites; conference specific television; and team-specific networks in major markets that might, like the Yankees will, expand into in-market online deals at an advanced price.

These moves, if profitable, start to inform both sports broadcasters, cable/ satellite tv companies (dealing with competition from online sites like Hulu), and sports fans about what the model will be going forward for sports. Segmenting fans helps bring the right money to the producers and determines the actual value of the product, on the business side.

But on the fan side, this kind of segmentation can be parsed too finely. The pay-per-view model loses the fairweather fans and the casual sports fans. And will pay per view remove the socia aspect of watching the game at a dedicated bar over wings and beer?  What value do those fans have to the schools and the media producers? This experiment will start to delve into the question.

A Quincy Roberts highlight reel, 2008-2009

Found an article from mid-Pennsylvania/ Penn Live website, where Harrisburg’s Quincy Roberts was a star before enrolling in St. John’s for school and to be a member of the Red Storm basketball team. Q saw a lot of minutes on the court out of position at the point guard, filling in for Malik Boothe. The highlight reel isn’t the whole story, as he didn’t light it up his freshman year. That said, he displays hops and a shot, and the Quincy has some talent. A look back on Quincy Roberts’ season will be coming in the next month on this site.

The depth chart is deep this year, and Q might not see as many minutes on the floor, but that happens with a 13 man roster – not everyone gets burn. Personally, I hope he redshirts this year and gives himself two years where he will shine with a lot of minutes in 2011 and 2012.

NBA Draft Day 2009

[Also known as Confirmation Day in the Church of Bracketology]

photos from Draft Express and the Hoops Report

Years ago I would meet with some friends at one of the larger bars in Manhattan to watch the NBA draft, mostly so I could lose my mind and start cussing into the air, in public, when, say, Marcus Camby was traded (with the rights to Nenê) for Frank Williams and a broken Antonio McDyess (who has, admittedly carved out quite a decent post-injury career for himself). I think my friends just wanted to see what I did when the Knicks did something so very obviously bad for their future and salary cap.

The funny thing is that I have a lot more affection for the Nets, really, but the Knicks are what New Yorkers of my age grew up with – Patrick Ewing, the kind of physicality and slowdown style that facilitates rules changes, the haircut of Anthony Mason, the post-game interview voice of John Starks… so it’s the Knicks I focus on when watching the draft. The Nets under Rod Thorn have made very good picks, from the Richard Jefferson year to Lopez and Anderson last year. They’re not all gangbusters, but they get players who get on the court.

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Some of the storylines going into tonight’s NBA draft:

+ The Knicks might be looking to trade Quentin Richardson for Memphis’ Darko Milicic… and may pick Gerald Henderson of Duke tonight. Apparently Coach Krzyzewski convinced Mike D’Antoni to sign free agent Chris Duhon, improving Duhon’s nightlife options immeasurably… possibly to the detriment of the team (no evidence, just conjecture). I kind of would like Darko. He’s not the second coming, but might be better under D’Antoni; he improved slightly in his scoring per 40 minutes last year. What else will the Knicks do to improve?

+ Not a storyline per se, but Free Darko analyzes the model stylings of future draftees Hasheem Thabeet, Pretty Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, Tyler Hansbrough, and more.

+ Some guy named Shaquille O’Neal who is very large was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for the expiring contracts of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. Basketball Prospectus thinks it is a poor trade, since O’Neal is a defensive liability and needs the ball to be effective… and he’s not that effective anymore. And I like Zydrunas Ilgauskas’s game next to LeBron (Z has some range and some post game)… I think the team needs something more impactful at the guard position.  Casn they find a steal in the draft to keep Lebron in Cleveland?

+ Speaking of Basketball Prospectus, here are some statistical translations from Euroleague stats for Pretty Ricky Rubio, Brandon Jennings, Omri Casspi, and Sergio Llull, who I have not heard of. And while we’re at it, here are translations for stateside players, ranking the guards in terms of WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player).  Will these projections be correct? Is Nick Calathes a future NBA star?

+ And then there’s the Brandon Jennings thing. Ball in Europe talks about how Jennings’ season was a net negative, a bust, and those numbers bear it out. Rough season for the youngster, even though Lottomatica Roma teammate Ibrahim Jabber likes his game in a long-winded post on True Hoop.

And he might be bitter now, but the benefits may be greater than simply showing that he can play and score. Lisa Olson writes on Jennings’ study abroad year:

People who study these things for a living say he is certainly a top three talent, but then they add words like “mystery” and “enigma” and “bad attitude” to his dossier, and nobody knows quite where Jennings will land….

“It was tough,” he says. “But I made a decision and I stuck with it. I like to think I matured as a man and as a player.”

Thing is? Jennings is still talented, but he has to improve some parts of his game, according to scouting reports (the outside shot, the decision-making). And he’s probably going to be drafted in the lottery. His experience will inform players like Jeremy Tyler that it is possible to go to Europe for basketball and come back, but it won’t be like going to State U and playing 38 minutes a game, with Dick Vitale yammering how they are awesome-baby. And maybe that’s a better fortune.

+ The last few days have been trade-crazy, with teams trying to get into position to get the impact players in what many feel is a weak (but possibly deep with role players?)  draft.  Richard Jefferson is happy to be “relevant again,” and I am happy he is as well; part of that deal means forward Amir Johnson will go to Milwaukee; the Timberwolves got the #5 pick in the draft, along with some large bodies who hold down the chairs; 76ers are looking to the old school logo; and Tracy McGrady might find himself traded for a draft pick. Those Rockets played pretty well without him…

+ Who are going to be the sleepers and the busts? SI’s Luke Winn looks at efficiency numbers in different scenarios… James Harden might have some work to do on his game in the faster-paced (than his Arizona State offense) NBA.

Jamaicans, Moneyball, Sosa: Link Dump!

Who would believe you can get 56 stars tattooed on your head while you were asleep? No one is that fast, nor that gentle with a needle… In New York, is Bloomberg just delaying the budget deficit hit until after the elections, where he is running for an unprecedented third term… Meanwhile, California’s budget deficit will have them dealing out “IOUs”, because liabilities at interest is just what the Golden State needs… there may be water on the moon (a moon of Saturn).

And for fun, the top 10 recent male politician infidelity confessions to accompany you while you read Gov. Sanford’s emails to his lady friend in the Palermo neighborhood of Buenos Aires. Transformers 2 gets bad reviews, but apparently has a lot of Megan Fox bouncing in slow motion. That, I suppose, will sell, but I can’t stand to listen to her act. So instead of the gratuitous Megan Fox picture I should put up, here’s a gratuitous Cat Deeley photo, just because I can… and instead of arrows or bullets, I’ll use Toni Basil’s crazy eyes.

Too short for a Toni Basil: From a while ago on the NCAA’s blog: Do You Have What It Takes to be an Athletic Director?

Samardo Samuels (Louisville), Weyinmi Efejuku (Providence), and Mike Coburn (Rutgers) out of the Big East will be playing with the Jamaican men’s national team this summer.

Hopefully the squad will do well in the Caribbean Basketball Championship this coming week… and maybe make moves to be included in the 2012 Olympics. And with all the Jamaicans in London, they might find it a little like a homecoming. As long as there are no more Jamaican Me Crazy headlines. Please.

Good to hear about former Marlins, Red Sox and Cubs pitcher Matt Clement. Apparently he’s hung it up in baseball and is coaching his high school’s basketball team in Butler, Pennsylvania; he played baseball and basketball before graduating in 1993.

He was never quite the same after that horrific injury, taking a baseball off his head faster than he could react. Good luck to him, and his future career.

Chances of ever seeing that Moneyball movie are pretty much dead now, after Sony stopped production, and no one wants to pick up the Steven Soderbergh/ Brad Pitt version of the Billy Beane-based book. Art Howe would have gotten to be himself! One-liners!

The “high budget and limited commercial appeal” sunk the project; apparently, “adult audiences”have not brought in the desired revenue.  Summer blockbusters for kids all year! And no more baseball movies, unless they are financed by Kevin Costner.

Ryne Sandberg thinks Sammy Sosa doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. Well, does Sandberg belong? Just asking!

For me, I am not very surprised that Sammy was on some steroid junk… the whole throwing his back out sneezing seemed to me like something that happens in conjunction with overworking the body’s muscles. I don’t know, but I would have suspected then. But, so what? Players are always trying to get over. If he is determined to be the best of the players who took steroids, he still has to have been great player to be the superstar that he was.

Another too short for a Toni Basil: Was there match-fixing at Wimbledon? Certainly, anyone looking to throw a game knows to do it in the less-publicized, less watched contests… so that’s not out of the realm of reason.

Barack Obama will throw out the first pitch at the All-Star game in St. Louis this year. I hope they don’t boo him… the city, like the Cardinal uniforms, tends towards red. Speaking at Notre Dame and showing up at the midsummer classic? He really is trying to win everybody over with smiles and availability.

And he’ll probably wear a White Sox jersey.

New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority is selling the naming rights to my old train station at Atlantic and Flatbush in Brooklyn to Barclay’s Bank, since that is where the new Nets stadium – if it is ever built – will stand.

The new design for the Barclay’s Arena for the Nets (from the New York Press) really does look like an airplane hangar.

Not with bang but a with a mewl + Sports Links

The U.S. Men’s National Soccer team has taken their second loss in the Confederations Cup in South Africa, a 0-3 stomping that featured another red card (this time Sascha Klejstan was sent off; Ricardo Clark caught the card in the Italy game), another early goal given up on defense, and the perception that the United States can’t hang with the big boys on the pitch.

Ann Killion of the San Jose Mercury News put it best, comparing where the US MNT is as compared to the stated goals of 11 years ago; the U.S. felt that they were ready to emerge as a power, and Landon Donovan and DeMarcus Beasley were going to be key to that future.

There have been moments, for sure, and the team is far better than they used to be, especially in comparison to the local North/ Central American competition in the CONCACAF. And it’s not like the U.S. side is losing in basketball, a sport where the country has a long history, decided advantage, and deep fan appreciation/ identification.

But still… the results and notes from today just make it sound like a dog of a game.

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After that downer, some links from this week:

* Emmanuelle Chriqui threw out the first pitch at a Dodgers game earlier this week. Hat tip to popoholic.

* Boise State football is looking to go on the road for some guarantee cash money from a big school (h/t Fanhouse) in 2010. This will bring in some money from the bigger schools to the smaller (budget-wise) state school; but brings up an interesting question. What team would bring in Boise State for a challenge game? They are always competitive, even if they have lost their last few guarantee games against Washington, Georgia, Arkansas, and South Carolina.

* Florida State will have to vacate 14 wins from their football squad’s record for violations invovling academic fraud. Man, that’s tough. But now maybe coach Bobby Bowden and Penn State’s Joe Paterno can retire; one could look at them and think that while they do love football, the lure of retiring as D-1 college football’s all-time winningest coach has to help them when the job seems to stressful, when the kids are acting like fools, when the age-related injuries slow them down… it’s time for both to consider hanging it up. They are like coach emiriti these days.

* As you know, Tim Floyd resigned from the University of Southern California amidst allegations of cash to recruit OJ Mayo and a perception that serious sanctions were coming down, especially since the allegations of wrongdoing have been very public. Currently, USC is moving ahead with its coaching search and looking for coaches with pro experience. They have locked in on former Seton Hall and pro coach P.J. Carlesimo and former New Mexico State and pro coach Reggie Theus. Reggie Theus is interested. I think he’s a good call – he seemed to be a decent coach at New Mexico State, players wanted to come to play for him, and while his pro career wasn’t stellar, it wasn’t terrible (and was cut too short).  Put a pretty charming face on a couple of hard years and possible ineligibility for the Big Dance, USC!

* Some Japanese pro wrestlers are accused (and there is evidence) of some serious animal abuse with a pet monkey. Honestly, don’t read it if you’re squeamish. I thought it was some of the most juvenile, disgusting actions I have read about in a long time.

Roles and Competition

In most sports, coaches welcome competition among their players. The ability to have strategic options (and sometimes, a little leverage) is a luxury coaches rave about in interviews. But having options that all believe they are good enough to get time can cause problems in getting players the time they think they deserve.

In that vein, here is a local Georgia article on Justin Brownlee, a junior college forward signed by the St. John’s Red Storm:

Brownlee who is now 6-foot-7, 225 pounds, expects to be a perimeter player for St. Johns. Brownlee said his intentions are to work on outside shooting, defense and conditioning this summer, and hopes to arrive in New York in tip top shape in the fall.

My own speculation was that a player of that height and weight would be signed to give some help down low. Rob Thomas plays forward at about that height and weight (though the weight is a little suspect, he looks bigger and stronger). The team, with the loss of two centers in the transferred Phil Wait and the graduated Tomas Jasiulionis, is a little weak in the middle – even if neither player was a difference maker on the court last year.

And on the perimeter, the team has Mason Jr./ Kennedy/ Horne/ Omari Lawrence/ Dwight Hardy/ Quincy Roberts at the 2/3, or the shooting guard and wing positions. With the possible exception of Kennedy in the hands of an imaginative coach, all of those players need to play on the perimeter, especially on defense. There are options there; Horne is a solid defensive player, Kennedy is aggressive, Mason has height and shooting ability, Hardy is a perimeter shooter… there are options, and ability for improvement from someone in the group.

Meanwhile, the three forwards, and center Dele Coker, will need to average 20 minutes apiece on the floor. That’s a lot to ask, considering the possibility of injury, suspension, and ineffectiveness from the 4 players. Coker averaged much less than 20 minutes per game. Burrell had ineffective stretches (with the mask on his face). Rob Thomas has struggled with some injury. Sean Evans has been decent but can’t play 40 minutes with his style of full-effort play. To top that off, the average in minutes played by each player last year:

PLAYER, MINUTES
Sean Evans,    27.5
Justin Burrell,    25.8
Rob Thomas,    13.6
Dele Coker,    10

To be fair, the team played with about the same rotation, but with Jasiulionis and Wait ready for emergency minutes.

Still, the team needs another forward option. Brownlee may be it; but if he is planning on (or has been asked to) play in the glut of players at the shooting guard and wing positions, I’m not sure that everybody is going to be happy. And sometimes, some player dissatisfaction is necessary to put the best complement on players on the floor. But with help needed up front, and a lack of options, it is going to be hard to play a 30 game season like this without some improved performances.

Early Summer Notes on Lawrence and Stith

New freshman recruits Malik Stith and Omari “O-Money” Lawrence have a little bit of press.

First, Malik Stith is featured on Johnny Jungle. Zach Smart interviews him about his first day of classes at St. John’s, going to the garden with Quincy Roberts, how he narrowed his choices, and what he likes about Norm Roberts – he’s a player’s coach.

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Pat Stevens posts on NBE Basketball on the games of Lawrence and Stith, and check that link for notes on some of the other ballers coming to the Big East from the northeastern prep schools, including Sean Kilpatrick (Cincinnati), Vincent Council (Providence), James Southerland (Syracuse), Alex Oriakhi (Connecticut) and more:

-St. John’s Omari Lawrence of South Kent, CT

“A bull in a china closet. He’s a bit unorthodox but very effective at what he does. His ability to shoot the three will have a lot to do with his success at the next level. You can’t just take it on the trees everytime. But he’s the type of kid that would take it in on Alonzo Mourning and he’d probably end up scoring too.” – Bridgton coach Whit Lesure

“He has the body to compete in the Big East, the toughness and the willingness to defend. He’ll have to be able to knock down shots more often to improve his game.” – St. Thomas More coach Jere Quinn

“We played South Kent three times and I’ve known him since he was very young playing down at camps in New Jersey and from when he was at St Raymond’s. He’s a talented kid with the ball, can score going to the hole, and I think he’ll have a nice career at St John’s. It was a good choice for him to stay home.” – Winchendon coach Mike Byrnes

“He’s really strong. We hammered them at our place right after Christmas. Both teams were out of sync and we were asking ourselves how are we winning by 30? Then they came back in the rematch and he played really well at the New Hampton tournament. He can really finish through contact.” – Brewster coach Jason Smith

St. John’s Malik Stith of Bridgton Academy, ME

“By the end of the NEPSAC, he was the MVP. We played them early at their place and as all teams are at that time, they were trying to figure out themselves. But we knew that as he went, they would go. He was phenomenal in the NEPSAC playoffs. They were a team who went possession by possession and with him as the quarterback he got guys shots at the right times on the shot clock and in the right spots. One kid totally dictated the tempo of the game when they played Patterson in the National Championship Tournament and that’s the reason Bridgton won because of his ability to control the game. How will it carry over to the Big East where everybody is quicker, taller, faster, and stronger. I’m curious to see how it carries over but he was the MVP of the playoffs. – Winchendon coach Mike Byrnes

“The definition of a waterbug. Constant, perpetual motion and the ability to keep him out of the paint is really difficult.” – Brewster coach Jason Smith

Taken at value, these are interesting quotes. Omari has always impressed with his strength and “and-1″ ability, his skills in snaking into the lane for a shot. His highlight reel displays these abilities as well. There is talk that the weight he gained last summer (while injured) has not come off, but with a solid strength program he should be good. St. John’s players have become stronger; the coaching staff values aggression and strength moves over finesse.

Malik Stith has gotten pub as a winner, a fearless point guard. If he can handle the rock against Big East teams, defend decently, and help (with Malik Boothe) establish a culture where the point guard controls the action, not an over-dribbling wing, St. John’s might look a little more crisp, and turn the ball over less.

2009-2010 Hot Seat… Big East

Regular readers know that this blog loves to follow “hot seat” conversation – those men’s basketball coaches whose efforts to maintain and improve their programs fall so short of expectations that they are on the verge of losing their coaching positions.

Jeff Goodman has a list of coaches on the hot seat to kick off conversation with DePaul’s Jerry Wainwright first, followed by NC State’s Sydney Lowe, St. John’s Norm Roberts, Oregon’s Ernie Kent, Fordham’s Dereck Whittenburg, and Southern Methodist’s Matt Doherty. Rutgers’ Fred Hill makes the list at 8; Seton Hall’s Bobby Gonzalez checks in at 11.

That is 4 Big East coaches there; and the others are no surprise. Even with the loss of endowment value and drops in donations that many schools are suffering from, a coach only has so much rope…

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Not sure that Bobby Gonzalez is still on that list; his beef with the Athletic Director seems to have quieted down, and he is bringing some talent in to Seton Hall. Iowa’s coach Todd Lickliter seems to be more deserving than Bobby; a lot of turmoil in the Hawkeyes, who were just terrible in a year where the Big Ten’s weak siblings started hitting back. As for Seton Hall, the coming year could have tumult, as three transfers hope to make their mark on the Pirates. Will the current and incoming players be happy with their minutes? Will Bobby thrive or draw undue attention to himself? There are a few players with NBA aspirations in Herb Pope and Jeremy Hazell; will they mesh?

Fred Hill has brought in talent and is going into his 4th year… which is enough time to make your team look better than it has. I do think he should be higher on the list, but lists like these are starting points for conversations. But if Hill brings in some good talents for 2010 – no one is signed as yet – with the remaining scholarships, does he stay on, even if the on-court results are underwhelming? In this way, talent can hold up a school; if the AD is convinced that a lack of talent is the problem, a coach may get a little extra time to bring in players, when there is evidence that the game coaching and player development is not up to snuff. Not saying that’s what is happening in New Brunswick (or Piscataway, wherever the campus technically is), but it’s something to think about.

At St. John’s, Coach Norm Roberts is in an interesting position – one would think he is under some pressure to win, but is a winning season enough to keep his position? It might be, especially since he has conducted himself to the media with class. His name is synonymous in articles with "good guy." There is more talent this year, though Roberts needs more talent to make a solid contender in the league. But letting him go would pass the burden of replacing 9 players in one year (when the current rising junior class leaves in 2011). Or on the other hand… that could be a clean slate for the next coach.

If a coach doesn’t get fired after not winning a regular season game in his conference, when does he get fired? One can say that, like Ernie Kent or Paul Hewitt, the Athletic Directors decided that Jerry Wanwright’s year was an abberation, but still, that is a lot of losing. There needs to be more local talent on the Chicago roster. If Wainwright gets some solid Chicago players to sign, does he get another year or two to coach them? As it stands now, there is not a whole lot of turnaround hope for next year, with Mac Koshwal thinking about going pro and Dar Tucker thinking that way as well.

2009-10 Big East: A Look At Next Year

College basketball fans couldn’t escape the common “wisdom” that the Big East was the best conference of all time in 2008-2009. Perhaps it was the prestige of the name-brand coaches in the league. Or perhaps it’s the influence of being the big basketball conference in the northeast. Or the audacity of the Big East to create a 16-team mega-conference filled with hyped name-brand players from the east, where the best high schools regularly get national hype.

Whatever it is, the Big East picked up a whole lot of hype last year, even if some of the numbers don’t quite speak to up and down quality (by RPI, this table and graphic speaks to how top-heavy the Big East was). I’m sure it was great for the ratings, and that relentless media hype was rewarded by two Final Four teams. It should be noted that there were also 5 Sweet Sixteen squads: Louisville, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Syracuse, and one of the best games of the tournament’s second weekend, a 78-76 thrill ride between Pittsburgh and Villanova.  It was a good year for the basketball teams in the conference, tipsy with fame and accolades.

Does the hangover come next?

The summer has not (yet) been heavy with pre-emptive Big East college basketball hype. Jamie Dixon has come out so far and stated that next year the Big East is ripe for standings upheaval as younger squads come of age, as experienced squads turn over playing time to talented freshmen and sophomores. Will this be one of those years where one team runs roughshod over the rest of the conference? Will every night no longer be “a battle,” as so many coaches said in their post-game news conferences? Will the Big East not have a candidate for number 1 team in the country?

O, what will become of the league?

Before the DePauls, Cincinnatis, St. John’s, the South Floridas and Seton Halls of the world start entertaining visions of basketball sugar plums, confetti, and cutting down nets, it’s important to remember that the other teams in the conference have been stocking up talent. It’s not proven talent, but Kemba Walker is out there, working on his game. Greg Monroe and Georgetown still have a lot of talent. Louisville brought in a really good recruiting class who got to sit and watch for a year.

And for those teams hoping to rise, players don’t suddenly become great shooters overnight. They don’t become that much more defensively aware or shuffle their feet in their third year in a program. Some players “get it” late, but most college ballers tweak their games after their first year of basketball training/ conditioning.

Maturity and experience alone won’t win games. Skill improves with familiarity, awareness, repetition, for sure; but less talented squads do not suddenly become great just by starting juniors and seniors. Contending has to start with their raw talent. Without that talent, experience might get you to the NIT. Might.

And if you disagree, feel free to talk on it with examples in the comments. But here are three things I have found to be true:

1. Players do not drastically improve in efficiency after their second year in college basketball.  There are always exceptions, but fantasizing that Corey Chandler is going to become a superstar will leave you with a lot of unfulfilled fantasies.

2. Without a coaching change, a change in philosophy, or a seriously talented recruit, a team’s efficiency is not going to change wildly; a coaching staff often does what it does, like a baseball managerial staff – some coaches are great at coaching defensive principles, others are good at coaching offensive rebounding. Et cetera.

3. Talent is the most important aspect in college basketball. Coaching (along with decent offensive and defensive skills) will get you some wins, but you don’t get past the Sweet Sixteen without talent.

So, a quick look at some factors affecting the Big East’s men’s basketball teams. With an emphasis on “quick” – this is not a statistical look at possible progressions, a deep look minutes returned or quality thereof, or a look of how much the incoming recruits will contribute. That’s for later on in the summer, and perhaps for a roundtable with other Big East bloggers.

Without further ado, a team-by-team look after the jump:

St. John’s Sports on Twitter

Everyone’s on twitter, including St. John’s Athletics. Torch Sports has the list of Red Storm feeds; I’m just following men’s basketball, myself. Now they just have to get the head coach on there. Or maybe not. All of Norm Roberts’ “@” responses would be quite rude.